Important: VAERS reports alone cannot determine if a vaccine caused an adverse event. Reports may contain incomplete, inaccurate, or unverified information. Correlation does not equal causation.
Analysis of recovery status in VAERS reports. The majority of adverse events resolve, but understanding what "not recovered" means requires important context.
VAERS tracks whether people recover from reported adverse events, but this data comes with important caveats. Of 2,508,101 reports with recovery status information:
However, "not recovered" doesn't necessarily mean permanent injury. It often means the condition was ongoing at the time the report was filed, which could be days, weeks, or months after vaccination.
The "not recovered" category includes several scenarios:
Importantly, VAERS is a passive surveillance system. Many people who recover completely may never submit follow-up information to update their recovery status.
For COVID-19 vaccines, 29.8% of reports indicate recovery, with 32.8% listed as not recovered. This pattern is similar to other vaccines and likely reflects the high volume of COVID-19 vaccine reports and the various types of symptoms reported.
Many COVID-19 vaccine "not recovered" reports involve common symptoms like fatigue or headache that were ongoing when the report was filed, rather than permanent disabilities.
Some vaccines show higher rates of "not recovered" status, but this often reflects the nature of the population receiving them or the types of symptoms commonly reported:
These differences may reflect various factors including the age and health status of recipients, the types of adverse events commonly reported for each vaccine, and reporting patterns rather than inherent differences in recovery likelihood.
A critical limitation is timing. VAERS reports are often filed shortly after vaccination when symptoms first appear. If someone experiences fatigue for a week after vaccination, they might report "not recovered" on day 3, even though they fully recover by day 7.
Unlike controlled clinical studies, VAERS doesn't systematically follow up with reporters to update recovery status. This creates a bias toward "not recovered" classifications for conditions that would eventually resolve.
Clinical trials and active surveillance studies generally show higher recovery rates than VAERS suggests. For example:
The controlled environment of clinical trials allows for better tracking of symptom resolution compared to the voluntary, passive VAERS system.